Smarkets: Biden clear DNC leader after remarkable comeback

March 24, 2020

As a result, Smarkets has updated all 2020 US Markets, pricing Biden as the current market leader at (1.17). This gives him an 85% chance of winning the DNC ticket.

joe biden

Former US Vice President Joe Biden achieved a truly remarkable campaign turnaround this Super Tuesday, winning a total of 10 out of 14 states. 

As a result, Smarkets has updated all 2020 US Markets, pricing Biden as the current market leader at (1.17). This gives him an 85% chance of winning the DNC ticket.

The Biden comeback has become one of the most shocking Super Tuesday surprises as before this Tuesday the Smarkets exchange has traded at 9.2 odds, just an 8% chance of winning. This was only days before Primary voting, with most political punters looking for a ‘Bernie Sanders blowout’.

However, on this Monday, Biden secured a number of crucial endorsements from DNC dropouts Amy Klobuchar and Pete Buttigieg, which changed the DNC field in favour of Biden’s campaign. 

A sporadic 24-hours saw Biden secure the majority within the states of Texas, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, North Carolina and Virginia.

Both Virginia and North Carolina are considered extremely important victories for Biden, as both states represent key swing states in 2020, which has further enhanced Biden’s DNC leadership odds.

Biden’s unexpected victory caused former market leader Burnie Sanders to plummet as the left-wing senator now has a 12% chance of victory as 6.6% odds. 

Upon heading into the final week of DNC campaigning, Sanders is looking for ‘progressive endorsement’ from Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who is continuing on the campaign trail even with odds at less than 1%. 

At the time of Super Tuesday trading activity showed that the market favoured Joe Biden at 54% followed by Bernie Sanders at 35%. Within Virginia, a big swing has started by the ‘Joe-mentum’ and as a result his chance has since jumped to 74%. 

It has now become clear that the content is between Sanders and Biden. Biden winning the state of Texas displayed outstanding resurgence, which began back in South Carolina and has continued since. Consequently, he has become a strong favourite in the Democratic Nominee market at 75%. 

Although at the moment it would appear that Sanders has won in California, Biden’s outstanding performance across the country shows that he is the man that must be beaten and the man that will most likely face off against Trump himself later in November. 

betmentor.com

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