What Is A Moneyline Bet?

In sports betting, Moneyline bets are the most common and most straightforward bets that any bettors can quickly understand and use properly. Even many seasoned gamblers love Moneyline betting to find big wins in sports online casinos. In particular, so far, many professional gamblers have successfully strategized winning using this type of bet.

So what exactly is the Moneyline bet? This type of bet has many types of odds. Moneyline bet can be understood as a type of bet on which team will have the potential to win without you having to pay attention to the point difference or any other conditions. Just choose your favorite team and start betting! In the case of team A that you bet on wins; regardless of the difference, you win.

In this article, besides understanding the definition, we will help you better understand many other aspects of Moneyline bet that will surely help your strategy. Therefore, whether you are new or experienced, do not ignore this article!

How Do Moneyline Bets Work?

After the favorite team is selected and the match is over, the sportsbook will rank Moneyline bets in one of three ways:

  • Win - Your chosen team wins, you get your stake back plus your winnings;
  • Lose - The team you select loses, you lose your bet;
  • Draw (No bet) - The match or half you bet ends in a draw; you only get your stake back.

Next, after a glance at the Moneyline odds, punters will know which side is favorite or underdog as the odds providers will attach odds for both sides. The favorite team will be assigned negative odds (-), while the underdog will have positive odds (+).

Example: Suppose you are interested in the English Premier League match between Manchester City (+120) and Arsenal (-130). In which, if you bet on Manchester City, you will be paid +120 if correct. For Arsenal, a successful bet on this team will pay with odds -130.

Finally, here are the results after the game is over if $100 is a bet:

  • Bet $100 with odds +120 = total potential profit of $220 (initial $100 bet plus $110 profit);
  • Bet $100 with odds -130 = total potential profit of $176.90 (initial $100 bet plus profit of $76.90).

Moneylines and Implied Probability

Moneylines represent current market expectations about a particular event, making it possible for even inexperienced punters to gain valuable information about the probability of a specific event by monitoring the betting market.

Meanwhile, the odds numbers attached to the line bets help the punters know how likely they are to determine how much they will win if the team wins. Therefore, it can be understood that odds help bettors calculate the percentage of odds that the bet needs to win to break even, also known as the implied probability (winning rate).

Let's say if the winning rate says you have to win your bet 40% of the time to break even. If you think you have a chance of winning 45% of the time, the bet will be worth it. To find the implied probability, you can calculate the following formula, where “S” is the absolute value of the American odds:

  • Negative Odds: S / (S + 100);
  • Positive Odds: 100 / (S + 100);
  • Finally, multiply the result by 100.

Example:

Real Madrid (-390) vs. Alaves (+280)

To find the implied probability of favorites, you can calculate:

390/ (390 + 100) x 100 = 79.59%.

Similarly, for underdogs, you can find the implied probability by calculating:

100/ (280+100) x 100 = 26.31%.

Therefore, the total implied probability of the match is 79.59% + 26.3% = 105.9%. From the value, you can also know the juice of the bookmaker is 5.9%. 

How Does the Sportsbook Earn Money from Moneyline Bets?

There is usually simple math for all bets, whether Moneyline, handicap, or parlay. It is impossible to know the profit margin of each bookie every year because this is a large number, but they are not fraudulent because the profits come from taking a small percentage as a fee.

However, sportsbooks always make a profit. You are free to take advantage of the bookie advantage at will but making a profit for yourself, in the long run, is challenging, and commercial sports betting is not always fair.

For example, in a match, both teams are even, and neither team is offered better odds than the other. Even so, the bookie will still place the odds at -110 for both sides. Therefore, if you lose your $100 bet, you will lose all your money, but if you win, you won't get the total $100. This means that the bookmaker will always take a small fee from the winnings with minus odds.

It is understandable that, no matter how much you bet, not only will you not make a profit, but you will also lose money. When gambling at -110 for the difference of points and totals, the break-even figure is 52.4%. If you bet a higher percentage than that, you are making money, but it is highly profitable for the casinos.

In addition, sports casinos also can regulate payouts. If there are many bets in favorites, the bookies usually adjust and reduce the risk as much as possible. For example, the bookie has a schedule of matches between two teams A and B, in which B is the weaker team. So, to try to attract gamblers more attention to team B, they will change the payout. The dealer will continue to adjust until the match ends.

Understanding Favorites and Underdogs in Moneyline

The two main components of Moneyline bets are Underdogs and Favorites:

Favorites (-): Indicates the player or team that is thought to be more likely to win. For instance, punters would have to bet the amount listed as -150 to win $100. In this case, they would have to bet $150 to win $100. If you win, the dealer will pay $250.

Underdogs (+): Indicates the player or team that is considered less likely to win. For instance, punters would have to bet $100 to win the amount listed as +150 for the lower win. Therefore, bettors must bet $100 to win $150, so the total payout is $250.

For better understanding, you can refer to the example below:

  • Barcelona -400
  • Getafe +340

You can see that in this match, Barcelona has more support and trust. However, you will find it less profitable to bet on Barcelona. In contrast, Getafe, although not appreciated, brings a more significant profit if it wins. The number -400 or +340 will help punters know how much profit they will gain for a correct pick. But, again, it is essential not to let potential profits guide you. Therefore, you should be sure which side will have a greater chance of winning.

So you can split the game before worrying about potential profits. You will then be able to identify profit ranges to be more conservative with options quickly. Therefore, balance is essential, and the ultimate return on investment is the critical point to focus on.

American Odds, Fractional Odds, and Decimal Odds in Moneyline Betting

The presentation of sports odds between American, Fractional, and Decimal can be different even though they mean the same thing. However, sometimes the way they work can be confusing.

Furthermore, most bookmakers will automatically calculate how much the punters will make in a Moneyline bet before placing the bet and will immediately indicate the profit. Therefore, we will help you understand the concept between these 3 methods as well as how to manually calculate for each format of American Odds, Decimal Odds, and Fraction Odds.

American Odds and Payouts Calculate 

This type of bet is presented in hundreds and thousands, determined by either a positive (+) or a negative (-) set value. The most common American odds are -110 and are generally considered odds/handicap on the spread and Over/Under (total) odds. Odds -110 requires a $110 bet of $100. 

Bets with higher implied probability will have a higher negative value. For example, a chance at odds of -300 would require punters to bet $300 for a $100 profit.

Bets with lower implied probability will have a positive value. For example, a chance at +300 odds will earn $300 on a $100 stake. 

A positive value indicates that the chances are plus money, and therefore the payoff is adequate to or quite the quantity risked on the bet.

Example: I will still use the previous example between Barcelona and Getafe.

  • Barcelona (-400) 
  • Getafe (+340)

For payout calculation, suppose you want to bet $100 on this match. If you calculate profit using American odds, you must first calculate the profit for favorite and underdog.

For Favourites, you would divide 100 by the number of American odds and multiply the number you get by the bet size for favorites. Specifically, Profit = (100/odds) x Bet Size, ie:

(100/400) * $100 = 25

Therefore, the profit on a $100 bet if Barcelona wins will be $25.

For Underdogs, you would divide the American odds by 100 and multiply the number you get by the bet size. Specifically, Profit = (odds / 100) x Bet Amount, ie:

(340/100) * $100 = 340.

Therefore, the profit on a $100 bet if Getafe wins will be $340.

It should be noted that the profit is different from the total return that the punters will receive from the bookmaker because each sportsbook will have different commissions, for example, Smarket has a 2% commission. Therefore, if you bet Getafe to win, the bookie will return a profit of $340 with the subtraction of the commission.  

Fractional Odds

Fractional odds quote the total amount that will be paid out. These odds are also quite common in horse racing and futures markets. In general, you need to divide one number by another, then take that sum and multiply it by the bet amount.

Suppose the more significant number is divided by the smaller 4/1, the odds will payout more than the original bet at risk. But if the smaller number is split by the more significant number (1/4), then the odds of payout are more minor than the original bet.

This type of bet is also often rated as causing confusion when calculating payout potential. The formula is similar to decimal odds, but it calculates the profit instead of the total amount returned. Punters will have to solve a fraction by dividing the top number by the bottom number. Therefore, to solve the fraction for the Barcelona bet, you would take one and divide it by 4.

Example:

Barcelona 1/4

Profit = Fraction Odds x Bet Size, ie: (1/4) x $100 = $25.

Getafe 3.4 / 1

Profit = Fraction Odds x Bet Size, ie:  (3,4 / 1) x $100 = $340.

Decimal Odds

Decimal odds are commonly used in Europe, being the preferred variation for most countries outside the US. This is why decimal odds are often referred to as “European Odds.”

Instead of using positive or negative values or fractional equations, European odds show primary importance that the punters multiply the bet to calculate the profit and the overall return (return and initial risk amount).

Compared to fractional odds, these odds is easier when converting potential payouts because punters do not need to memorize two different formulas depending on underdogs or favorites. Whatever the team, all you need to keep in mind is multiplying the European odds by the bet to calculate the total return (not profit).

This time, we will revisit how to bet with decimal odds.

  • Barcelona 1.44
  • Getafe 4.40

Barcelona

According to the formula: Total Returns = Decimal Odds x Bet Size, ie: 1.44 x $100 = $144.

To calculate the profit, you need to subtract the initial bet amount of $100, meaning you will get $44 when betting on Barcelona.

Getafe

According to the formula: Total Returns = Decimal Odds x Bet Size, ie: 4.40 x $100 = $440.

To calculate the profit, you can subtract $100 from your initial bet to calculate the total amount returned by the sportsbook, meaning you will get a profit of $340 when betting on Getafe.

In a nutshell, decimal odds are easy to calculate, and that is why many gamblers love using them. What to keep in mind is to keep in mind the number you are calculating with the initial bet.

Conclusion

If you are intending to enter the betting world, you need to understand all kinds of odds in order to have a good strategy to increase your profits significantly on bets. Practice your calculations to equip yourself with enough skills when participating in Moneyline betting. Moreover, do not be too hasty and impatient in seeking profits from sports betting but think carefully before making final decisions.

Published: 19 November 2021 17:22