World Cup: Two Favourites to Avoid This Summer

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is just around the corner, with the final six teams of the increased 48-strong lineup currently being determined in the playoffs. Italy look poised to end their 12-year drought, with just Bosnia and Herzegovina standing between them and a return to the global stage at long last. Elsewhere, both Bolivia and Jamaica stand on the brink of a return as well.

Neither of them are listed among the tournament favourites with online betting sites, though. The latest odds from Lucky Rebel Sportsbook currently list the European heavyweights as the teams to beat. Reigning continental champions Spain are given top billing at 9/2, the team they beat in that Euro 2024 final, England, is just behind at 11/2, and a France team that has reached the last two World Cup finals is at 7/1.

But anyone thinking that the big boys will have it all their own way ought to err on the side of caution. Each and every four years, one — and sometimes more than one — of the tournament's heaviest hitters gets sent packing early. Germany have suffered group stage exits in each of the last two tournaments, while Belgium joined them on an early flight home in 2022. So, who are the teams to avoid this year? Let's take a look.

Italy

Italy haven't yet punched their tickets to the World Cup, with Bosnia standing in their way of a first appearance since 2014. But considering their recent playoff heartbreaks, the Azzurri won't be counting their chickens just yet. Sweden dumped them out back in 2018, winning 1-0 after a nervy two-legs to seal their spot in Russia. Four years later, North Macedonia silenced Palermo after Aleksandar Trajkovski's last-gasp rocket.

They were thumped both home and away by Erling Haaland's Norway in qualifying, as they had to settle for a runners-up berth and a trip to the playoffs. But despite the drought, the bad omens, and a difficult trip to Sarajevo looming, Italy are expected to finally make their long-awaited World Cup return. When they do, we won't be rushing to back them.

The Italians will be drawn into Group B alongside co-hosts Canada, and facing the Maple Leafs at a raucous BMO Field will by no means be an easy task. Next up comes Switzerland in Los Angeles, the team that unceremoniously dumped the reigning European champions out of Euro 2024 at the Round of 16 stage, and did so at a canter. Finally comes the clash with Qatar in Seattle, a game that Gattuso's men will surely win, but they will need at least a point from one of their opening two games if they are to progress to the knockout stage.

Should the Italians fail to win the Group, then they will have to run the gauntlet in the knockout stage. Portugal will likely await in the Round of 16 before a clash with reigning champions Argentina in the quarterfinals. However, just making it that far remains a huge ask, and we won't be backing them to go any further than the Round of 16 at best.

England

Back-to-back trips to the European Championship finals weren't enough for England's notoriously fickle fan base, and former manager Gareth Southgate knew it, resigning from his position in the aftermath of the Euro 2024 final defeat to Spain in Berlin. Chelsea's former Champions League-winning boss Thomas Tuchel has since taken over, and he led the Three Lions through a stellar World Cup qualifying campaign, winning all eight games without conceding a single goal. However, one can't read too much into that when Albania were the best opponent they faced.

When it comes to the squad, there is undeniable quality. Harry Kane is on fire with Bayern Munich, while Declan Rice is in the midst of an imperious campaign for Arsenal. But elsewhere, trouble looms.

Jude Bellingham was the hero of England's run in Germany two years ago, but he has endured an injury-hit campaign with Real Madrid and may not even start in Tuchel's midfield at the World Cup. His Los Blancos teammate Trent Alexander-Arnold is out of contention altogether, while Bukayo Saka has been surprisingly quiet despite Arsenal's stellar campaign.

Then there's the trial by fire that England will have to run through if they are to leave MetLife Stadium as champions. Bogey team Croatia in the group stage, likely a round of 16 clash with Mexico in Mexico City, before facing five-time champions Brazil in the quarterfinals. Somehow find a way through that, and either Portugal or Argentina will await in the semis.

England reached the semifinals back in 2018, but their run to the final-four was as favourable as it gets. They haven't beaten a top-ranked team in a World Cup knockout game since they won the tournament back in 1966, and considering the 60 years of heartbreak that have followed that solitary success, it's hard to see them somehow powering their way to the final this summer, despite what the bookies may say.